ABSTRACT

This study is carried out to examine the rate of Statistical Analysis on Prevalence of Lassa Fever in Nigeria is used as a proxy for economic growth. Data on quarterly GDP from 2018 – 2021 was obtained from Lassa Fever Outbreak Situation Report. Ratio-to-trend and least square method was used to analyze the data. Results of the study shows that the GDP is composed of both seasonal variation and trend. The result of the seasonal index revealed that, the GDP is negatively affected in first half of every year and positively affected in second half of the year. Results of trend equation revealed that, the GDP increases on average by 53billion naira per quarter. It was found that the trend is significant at 5% level of significance. The study concluded that, Nigeria economic growth is affected by seasonal variation and regardless the effect of the season, there has been an increase in the economic growth of the country. It was recommended that, Nigeria government should promote local businesses so as to enhance the country international trade, they should do more in diversifying the economy by promoting other sectors such as agriculture and also other concern agencies should investigate the causes of seasonal effect on the growth of the economy.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Title page        –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           i

Certification –         –         –         –         –         –         –         –         ii

Dedication   –         –         –         –         –         –         –         –         iii

Acknowledgements         –         –         –         –         –         –         iv

Abstract       –         –         –         –         –         –         –         –         v

Table of content     –         –         –         –         –         –         –         vi-viii

CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION

1.1       Preliminary     –           –           –           –           –           –           –           1-3

1.2       Statement of Problem –           –           –           –           –           –           4

1.3       Objectives of the Study          –           –           –           –           –           5

1.4       Statement of Hypothesis        –           –           –           –           –           5

1.5       Assumption of the Study        –           –           –           –           –           5-6

1.6       Scope of the Study      –           –           –           –           –           –           6

1.7       Significance of the Study       –           –           –           –           –           6-7

1.8       Definition of Terms    –           –           –           –           –           –           7

CHAPTER TWO: REVIEW OF RELATED LITERATURE

2.1       Introduction    —         –           –           –           –           –           –           8

2.2       Literature Review       –           –           –           –           –           –           8

2.2.1    History of Lassa Fever           –           –           –           –           –           8-10

2.2.2    Prevalence of Lassa Fever      –           –           –           –           –           10-13

2.2.3    Mode of Transmission           –           –           –           –           –           14-15

2.2.4    Prevention and Control          –           –           –           –           –           15-16

2.2.5    Review of Empirical Studies –           –           –           –           –           17-19

CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGY

3.1       Introduction    –           –           –           –           –           –           –           20

3.2       Design of the Study    –           –           –           –           –           –           20

3.3       Population of the Study          –           –           –           –           –           21

3.4       Sampling Procedure   –           –           –           –           –           –           21

3.5      The Sample     –           –           –           –           –           –           –           21

3.6       Data Collection          –           –           –           –           –           –           22

3.7       Data Analysis Techniques and Presentation  –           –           –           22

3.8       Data Preparation         –           –           –           –           –           –           23

CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS, RESULTS AND INTERPRETATION

4.1       Introduction    –           –           –           –           –           –           –           24

4.2       Data Presentation       –           –           –           –           –           –           25-26

4.3       Data Analysis –           –           –           –           –           –           –           26-43

4.4       Interpretation of Results         –           –           –           –           –           43-44

CHAPTER FIVE: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSION

5.1       Introduction    –           –           –           –           –           –           –           45

5.2       Discussion of Findings           –           –           –           –           –           45-46

5.3       Summary-       –           –           –           –           –           –           –           46

5.4       Conclusion      –           –           –           –           –           –           –           47

5.5       Recommendations      –           –           –           –           –           –           47-48

References

CHAPTER ONE

 INTRODUCTION

1.1     Preliminary

Lassa fever is a viral haemorrhagic fever caused by a single stranded RNA virus belonging to the Arenaviridae family, it is a zoonotic disease whose reservoir is the multimammate rat of the genus Mastomys (March J, 2013). It is zoonotic disease, meaning that humans become infected from contact with infected animals. The animal reservoir or host, of Lassa virus is a rodent of the genus Mastomys, commonly known as the “multimammate rat”. Mastomys rats infected with Lassa virus do not become ill, but they can shed the virus in their urine and faces (WHO, 2017). Humans are infected by exposure to food or household items contaminated with excreta or urine of infected rodents, processing of infected rats for consumption, airborne through the inhalation of tiny particles in the air contaminated with infected rodent excretions or reuse of infected needles. Person-to-person transmission also occur especially among healthcare workers through direct contact with body fluids of infected persons, often due to a lack of appropriate infection, prevention and control (IPC) measures whilst receiving care (WHO, 2017).

Lassa fever is endemic in several West African countries including Nigeria, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Liberia (Idemyor V., 2010). Every year, between 300,000 – 500,000 people in this region are affected, resulting in over 5,000 deaths annually (Sogoba N, 2012). In endemic situation, the overall case fatality rate (CFR) of Lassa fever is estimated to be in the range of 1-10 percent. However, during epidemic outbreak, the CFR of Lassa virus may be up to 50 percent while higher rate has been recorded in severe cases. The high degree of seroprevalence of Lassa virus – specific antibodies in the general population residing in the endemic regions, although highly variable depending on the geographical location (from 7% in Guinea and 15–20% in Sierra Leone and Liberia; to over 20% in Nigeria (Yun NE, 2012), indicates that most infections are mild or possibly even asymptomatic and do not result in hospitalization. Nosocomial outbreaks are however, associated with higher mortality rates ranging from 36% to 65% . There is no age, gender or racial predilection (Adebayo D, 2015).

In Nigeria, Lassa Fever was first reported in Borno State. When two missionary nurses died from an unusual febrile illness. Since then cases and outbreaks continue to be reported in Nigeria ((NCDC), 2019) . The actual incidence rate in Nigeria is unknown, but case fatality rates range from 3% to 42% (and over the last two years has remained between 20% and 25%). Lassa fever is endemic in Nigeria and the annual peak of human cases is usually observed during the dry season (December–April) following the reproduction cycle of the Mastromy rats in the wet season (May – June). Given that 90-95% of human infections are due to indirect exposure to (through food or household items contaminated by infected rats’ urine and faeces) or direct contact with infected Mastomys rats, the very high density and high circulation of Lassa fever virus in young non-immune rat population during the wet season create a potential for further human infection, thus, the number of infections is expected to continue to rise until the end of the dry season  (WHO, 2020). Hence, this study is carried out to determine the incidence rate of the virus in our society and examine various ways to reduce the prevalence to promote health of the citizens.

1.2     Statement of Problem

In recent years, Lassa fever outbreaks in Nigeria have become more frequent and larger in magnitude; the outbreak in 2018 was described as the largest in history (Tambo E, 2018). According to NCDC, the virus is an epidemic prone disease for immediate notification on the Integrated Disease Surveillance System (IDSR) platform in Nigeria. A suspected case is considered an alert threshold and one confirmed case an epidemic threshold. Sporadic outbreaks occur annually, and have been reported in up to one-third of states in the country (Nasir IA, 2015). There is however paucity of publications on the magnitude of the disease in the country. This could affect early preparedness and resource allocation which helps in the control of the disease. It is on this basis this study is conducted to assess the prevalence rate of the disease and provide useful information on mode of transmission, prevention, and treatment available.

1.3     Objectives of the Study

The objectives of this study are to:

1. explore the rate at which people are being infected by Lassa fever in Nigeria.
2. assess the rate at which people are dying due to Lassa fever.

• determine the seasonal effect of monthly confirmed and death cases.

1. establish a trend equation for monthly confirmed and death cases.

1.4     Statement of Hypothesis

H₀₁: Trend of confirmed Lassa fever cases is not significant.

H₁₁: Trend of confirmed Lassa fever cases is significant.

H₀₂: Trend of Lassa fever death cases is not significant.

H₁₂: Trend of Lassa fever death cases is significant.

1.5     Assumption of the Study

1. The prevalence of Lassa fever across Nigeria region varies greatly.
2. Some other factors can contribute to death of Lassa fever patients.

• Not all Lassa fever confirmed and death cases are able to be captured by NCDC.

1. 1.6 Scope of the Study

This study covers the monthly reported cases of Lassa fever reported by NCDC from 2018 to 2021. It focuses on examining the rate of confirmed and death cases in the country and determine the seasonal effect and trend in the cases. Due to limited data made available, various causes of Lassa fever are not examined and also the prevalence by states are not investigated in the study.

1.7     Significance of the Study

This study is very important for improving the health status of Nigerian citizens. The general public will gain more knowledge about Lassa fever, information such as transmission mode and possible treatment will help people to be cautious and take various preventive measure to avoid be effect by the virus. The medical professionals will be aware of fatality rate of the Lassa fever and this will goad them in finding solution to treat and eradicate the disease from the society. Also this study will provide necessary information which will be of help to the Nigerian government to take cognizance of the prevalence of the virus in the society, by this means government will have the opportunity to put in place appropriate measure to control the disease and improve its citizen wellbeing. Furthermore, this study will contribute to previous studies which have been carried out on Lassa fever in Nigeria.

1.8     Definition of Terms

Lassa fever: A viral haemorrhagic fever transmitted by rat.

Virus: This is a submicroscopic infectous agent that replicates only inside the living cells of an organism.

Confirmed Case: An individual infect by Lassa fever.

Death Cases: Patient which died due to Lassa fever.

Prevalence: Widespread of Lassa fever